Our choice of North Carolina as a Key State is driven primarily by its U.S. Senate race. Many feel that without a win in North Carolina, Democrats’ aspirations to control the Senate cannot succeed. Fortunately, incumbent Thom Tillis’s job approval/disapproval ratings have been dismal 34%/39% according to a February 28 CBS poll. Tillis, a first-term Senator, defeated then-incumbent Kay Hagan (D) in 2014 by only 48.8% to 47.3%. Hagan was first elected in 2008 when she defeated incumbent Elizabeth Dole by 8 and ½ points. In 2016, Trump took North Carolina by 4 points.
Forty-six-year-old Democrat Cal Cunningham, a former state senator, is Tillis’ opponent. Cunningham is an Army veteran of both the Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts, and a Bronze Star winner. He has raised considerably more money than Tillis, who hoped to benefit from the efforts of the “Faith and Power PAC,” the Republican super PAC posing as a Democratic entity to try and stop Cunningham from getting the nomination. As of March 1st, the Tillis seat was rated a tossup by Politico, 270towin.com and Sabato’s Crystal Ball; and a Lean GOP by The Cook Political Report and Inside Elections.
In the state Senate, Swing Left is targeting six GOP-held seats and two Democratic holds. With North Carolina’s newly drawn districts following a federal court’s nullification of the state’s over-the-top gerrymandering, newly competitive seats span the suburbs of Raleigh, Fayetteville, Charlotte, and Winston-Salem.
In the state House, Swing Left is targeting seven GOP-held seats and five Democratic holds. State courts also ordered new districts in the state House in 2019. Swing Left’s target districts include parts of Fayetteville, Charlotte, Winston-Salem, and other ex-urban or rural regions in western North Carolina.
The Purple States Report ranks the North Carolina Senate and House 14th and15th respectively.