Our Key States

Map courtesy of swingleft.org

As of July 1, 2020, we have selected Arizona and North Carolina as our Key States. From time to time, we may also provide support to US Senate candidates in Georgia, Iowa and Michigan.

Arizona

A growing Latino population and large influx of newcomers challenge a long history of Republican domination in Arizona and make it a flippable state for all three of our priorities.
Those priorities are:

1. The presidency
2. The U.S. Senate
3. State legislatures that will configure Congressional Districts for the next ten years.

The nearly 4.5 million residents of Maricopa County (Phoenix/Mesa/Scottsdale metropolitan areas) represent more than 50% of the state’s population. U.S. Census Bureau statistics place Maricopa County’s Hispanic population at nearly one-third of the county’s total population. Approximately 25% of Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale residents Spanish and over 90% are U.S. citizens.

Challenges exist in Arizona, to be sure, including new voting restrictions adopted in 2019 by the GOP-controlled state legislature. The new law was enacted in response to 2018 early voting numbers (particularly in Maricopa County) that exceeded the total 2014 turnout.

Arizona’s battleground U.S. Senate race is for the seat vacated by John McCain to which Republican Martha McSally has been appointed. McSally’s Democratic opponent is 56-year old Mark Kelly who entered politics after the 2011 shooting of his wife, former Congresswoman Gabby Giffords.

Read More About the Arizona U.S. Senate Race.

In the state legislature, Swing Left is targeting Senate Districts 6, 17, 20 and House Districts LD 6, 17 and 20. These overlapping districts, clustered near the Phoenix metro area along with additional targets northeast of Phoenix are considered to have been key to Kyrsten Sinema’s U.S. Senate victory in 2018. The Purple States Report of EveryDistrict.us ranks the Arizona House and Senate the 5th and 6th most winnable state houses.

Arizona voters must register at least 29 days before the election, and residency must be established 29 days prior as well. Registration is permitted online, in person at the county recorder's office, or by mail. Proof of residency is required for state and local elections.

North Carolina

Our North Carolina goals are to:

1) flip Thom Tillis’s U.S. Senate seat;

2) win the state’s fifteen Electoral College votes; and

3) flip one or both chambers of the state legislature.


Our choice of North Carolina as a Key State is driven by its U.S. Senate race. Many feel that Democrats’ aspirations to control the Senate cannot succeed without a win in North Carolina. (Many also feel that Trump can’t win reelection without winning North Carolina.) According to a February 28 CBS poll, Tillis’s job approval/disapproval ratings going into the general election season, were a dismal 34%/39%. A first-term Senator, Tillis narrowly defeated then-incumbent Kay Hagan (D) in 2014 by 48.8% to 47.3%. Hagan had taken the seat in 2008 from Elizabeth Dole by 8 and 1⁄2 points.


Tillis’s Democratic opponent is forty-six-year-old Cal Cunningham, a former state senator. Cunningham served in both Iraq and Afghanistan where he was awarded a Bronze Star. He has raised considerably more money than Tillis, who hoped to benefit from the efforts of the “Faith and Power PAC,” the super PAC with ties to Mitch McConnell that posed as a Democratic entity to try to deny Cunningham the nomination. As of March 1st, the Tillis seat was rated a tossup by Politico, 270towin.com and Sabato’s Crystal Ball; and a Lean GOP by The Cook Political Report and Inside Elections.


In the state Senate, Swing Left is targeting six GOP-held seats and two Democratic holds. With North Carolina’s newly drawn districts following a federal court’s nullification of the state’s over-the-top gerrymandering, newly competitive seats span the suburbs of Raleigh, Fayetteville, Charlotte, and Winston-Salem. In the state House, Swing Left is targeting seven GOP-held seats and five Democratic holds. In 2019, North Carolina state courts ordered new state House districts to be drawn, creating targets for the Democrats in Fayetteville, Charlotte, Winston-Salem, and other ex-urban and rural regions in western North Carolina.

NC at a Glance

15 Electoral College votes

1 United States Senate seat to flip

5 Seats needed to flip the state senate

6 Seats needed in order to flip the state house

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